alternative chronological realities
This was a reaction to a series of articles and an analysis in an Ibon magazine, part of a Journalism class assignment under Sir Danilo Arao...
The long and bitter war is over. The latest developments in the new year has offered a glimmer of light for crawling out of the economic and political crisis spawned by the corrupt and incompetent Estrada government. The ouster of former president Joseph Estrada from office concludes a chapter in what IBON's Antonio Tujan calls the "crisis of moribund elite politics."
In light of the new developments, a comparison with IBON's projections is in order. The first article gives a review of economic realities affected by political uncertainty in the context of whether Estrada will remain in office or not. It begins by trying to show relevant issues. The article shows a good grasp of economic fundamentals. It shows that although the government tries to project a good economic report, the author elucidates some points that could mislead the reader's opinion on the meaning of the particular economic data. The writer clarifies, for example, that lower rate in government expenditure does not translate to the government's spending less. The writer also comprehends that economic data does not mean human level of satisfaction. He points out that GNP and GDP do not necessarily reflect the standard of living of the poor.
The use of tables indicate mastery by the writer and this improves the readability of the topic. I feel, though, that economic data can still be disseminated in more popular form. I have no suggestions on how this could be done, but still the point has to be raised.
The writer's argument is supported by ample evidence except for one assertion. I am anti-Estrada myself, but assuming Estrada guilty of the December 30 bombings without sufficient evidence contradicts my preference to give even enemies the benefit of the doubt. The point is that Estrada was not proven to be responsible for the bombings. However much one would like it to point to Estrada's direction, one cannot play the game of objectivity with conspiracy theories presented as unarguable fact.The writer could have put it in a more subtle way. Still, the tone of the article does allow for it to be an opinion piece. In this case, the lapse is within the bounds of what is expected.
Overall, the article is well-written. The conclusion is much supported by the data.
The next article speaks of destabilization and the political crisis that the Estrada government administered and suffered from. It lays down possible scenarios that could happen given the crisis. It was of course limited by the data at the time of the writing but the author does good scenario-building even with this handicap put up by time to those wishing to probe its secrets.
The scenarios are good in that they follow from the argumentation and data given by the author. There is one point, though, that is arguable. On page 29, the writer states that in case of an acquittal, public outrage will follow, but the military will become the decisive factor. In hindsight, the argument was plausible. But the turn of events have shown that it was the public and its pressure that was decisive. The military defections of Mercado and Reyes were only icing in the ouster cake. One would think that the author's insistence on the decisive role of the military had put him under the spell of rightist propagandists. The decisive factor for the military's defection was mainly civilian and US support was minimal.
The above points about the military, civilians and the US reminds me of a bet I made in 1998 with activist friends on who would win the presidential elections. I wagered that Estrada would win and they thought it would be De Venecia because he had the machinery and the support of the US government. They underestimated Estrada's popularity with the masses and focused too much on structures as a basis for analysis. My co-bettors underestimated the opinion of the masses. Besides, I later pointed out, anyone not adverse to US interests will not invite US intervention. I still have to collect my winnings.
The reason why most of the scenarios given have not taken place and will probably not take place is the author's emphasis on structural analysis without giving thought to contingency and the role of human agency. Thus, basing only on long-term projections, a small thing like the reaction by the public to obstruction of justice was overlooked. The people only exhausted all means to remove Estrada from office but when all means had been exhausted and the people had been frustrated, the last option was immediately taken. The events leading to January 20 could have been predicted as early as the first week of January. But to be fair, based on what he has given, the scenarios presented by the author are probable scenarios. Unfortunately for these analyses, but fortunately for the Filipino people, a new timeline has dominated over these alternative chronological realities.
Again, the presentation of data in tables and essay form is admirable. A reader not interested in the topics would still get a very good idea of what the writer is saying. Which more than makes up for the criticism I have made above.
The long and bitter war is over. The latest developments in the new year has offered a glimmer of light for crawling out of the economic and political crisis spawned by the corrupt and incompetent Estrada government. The ouster of former president Joseph Estrada from office concludes a chapter in what IBON's Antonio Tujan calls the "crisis of moribund elite politics."
In light of the new developments, a comparison with IBON's projections is in order. The first article gives a review of economic realities affected by political uncertainty in the context of whether Estrada will remain in office or not. It begins by trying to show relevant issues. The article shows a good grasp of economic fundamentals. It shows that although the government tries to project a good economic report, the author elucidates some points that could mislead the reader's opinion on the meaning of the particular economic data. The writer clarifies, for example, that lower rate in government expenditure does not translate to the government's spending less. The writer also comprehends that economic data does not mean human level of satisfaction. He points out that GNP and GDP do not necessarily reflect the standard of living of the poor.
The use of tables indicate mastery by the writer and this improves the readability of the topic. I feel, though, that economic data can still be disseminated in more popular form. I have no suggestions on how this could be done, but still the point has to be raised.
The writer's argument is supported by ample evidence except for one assertion. I am anti-Estrada myself, but assuming Estrada guilty of the December 30 bombings without sufficient evidence contradicts my preference to give even enemies the benefit of the doubt. The point is that Estrada was not proven to be responsible for the bombings. However much one would like it to point to Estrada's direction, one cannot play the game of objectivity with conspiracy theories presented as unarguable fact.The writer could have put it in a more subtle way. Still, the tone of the article does allow for it to be an opinion piece. In this case, the lapse is within the bounds of what is expected.
Overall, the article is well-written. The conclusion is much supported by the data.
The next article speaks of destabilization and the political crisis that the Estrada government administered and suffered from. It lays down possible scenarios that could happen given the crisis. It was of course limited by the data at the time of the writing but the author does good scenario-building even with this handicap put up by time to those wishing to probe its secrets.
The scenarios are good in that they follow from the argumentation and data given by the author. There is one point, though, that is arguable. On page 29, the writer states that in case of an acquittal, public outrage will follow, but the military will become the decisive factor. In hindsight, the argument was plausible. But the turn of events have shown that it was the public and its pressure that was decisive. The military defections of Mercado and Reyes were only icing in the ouster cake. One would think that the author's insistence on the decisive role of the military had put him under the spell of rightist propagandists. The decisive factor for the military's defection was mainly civilian and US support was minimal.
The above points about the military, civilians and the US reminds me of a bet I made in 1998 with activist friends on who would win the presidential elections. I wagered that Estrada would win and they thought it would be De Venecia because he had the machinery and the support of the US government. They underestimated Estrada's popularity with the masses and focused too much on structures as a basis for analysis. My co-bettors underestimated the opinion of the masses. Besides, I later pointed out, anyone not adverse to US interests will not invite US intervention. I still have to collect my winnings.
The reason why most of the scenarios given have not taken place and will probably not take place is the author's emphasis on structural analysis without giving thought to contingency and the role of human agency. Thus, basing only on long-term projections, a small thing like the reaction by the public to obstruction of justice was overlooked. The people only exhausted all means to remove Estrada from office but when all means had been exhausted and the people had been frustrated, the last option was immediately taken. The events leading to January 20 could have been predicted as early as the first week of January. But to be fair, based on what he has given, the scenarios presented by the author are probable scenarios. Unfortunately for these analyses, but fortunately for the Filipino people, a new timeline has dominated over these alternative chronological realities.
Again, the presentation of data in tables and essay form is admirable. A reader not interested in the topics would still get a very good idea of what the writer is saying. Which more than makes up for the criticism I have made above.
posted by www.newfreemedia.com @ 9:02 AM
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